Opening Asia for Russia

22.11.2018 123 просмотров

In November, oil quotes quickly collapsed from their highs by about $20. Some experts explain this by the increase in oil production in the United States, the actions of Russia and Saudi Arabia, which made adjustments towards increasing quotas for the production of "black gold" in the OPEC + agreement to reduce oil production, as well as the conspiracy of the Saudis and US President Donald Trump.


It is precisely this complex geopolitical game of these three countries that the experts of the French edition of Monde explain the high volatility in the world oil market.

sharply down. As the newspaper notes, until recently, when the United States announced its new sanctions policy against Iran this spring, it seemed that oil prices would skyrocket - and there were no signs of their sharp decline. At the very least, many traders were sure that oil would confidently overcome $90 per barrel and try to storm the milestone of $100 per barrel.

However, this did not happen - on the contrary, quotes rolled down and broke through the sign mark at $70 per barrel, which dropped below $65 per barrel for Brent oil. As of 11:58 Moscow time, the price was $62.63 per barrel. The cost of American oil of brand WTI fluctuated around $53.86 per barrel by the indicated time.

Agreement participants OPEC+, instead of continuing to control the situation, rushed to conquer new production milestones with redoubled energy. In particular, this applies to both Russia and Saudi Arabia.

“The world market is too overloaded with oil for prices to remain at the same level,” James Williams, an analyst at WTRG, told France Presse, according to whom, who predicted the cost of "black gold" at a higher level, there is nothing left but to capitulate and join the players who play for a fall. Merrill Lynch analysts are of the same opinion, although they also note that demand in the global oil market not only did not decrease, but also increased, and world consumption in September exceeded 100 million barrels per day - this has never happened before. .

First of all, analysts attribute the growth in demand for this type of raw material to China, which is actively increasing the volume of oil imports. He needs it in large volumes for both domestic and military purposes. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), current demand is likely to remain or even increase in the future against the backdrop of a flaring trade war between China and the United States, unless, of course, the Chinese economy starts to "deflate". But so far there are no serious reasons to worry about this.

What is noteworthy, experts say: three countries, three leaders in terms of oil production - the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia - started a complex geopolitical game. As a result, traders working in the oil market seem to have sat on a swing, unable to keep up with changing prices. At the same time, everyone has already managed to make good money, despite the fact that the oil market today shows an extreme degree of instability.

According to the publication, this summer, US President Donald Trump began an active campaign to combat high oil prices, accusing OPEC and Saudi Arabia, as the leader of the cartel, that the prices for "black gold" are artificially high. Therefore, he called for an increase in oil production in order to slow down the rise in prices, and ideally to reduce them, which, in general, is beneficial to the American consumer, but not very American oil companies. However, unlike the economies of Russia and Saudi Arabia, the American economy is not tied to the export of hydrocarbons. The share of mining companies in replenishing the US budget is rather limited. Therefore, Trump, who came to power, by the way, largely thanks to the support of the oil industry, was forced to start throwing angry lightning bolts, since the American economy as a whole does not need high prices for "black gold".

However, the actions of the same Trump At first, it might not seem very logical to some: by advocating for lower oil prices, he drove Iran into a sanctions corner, arguing that the United States would do everything possible to nullify Iranian oil exports. The first reaction of the market to these statements was nervous - oil prices rapidly went up. They grew as American rhetoric against Iran hardened. At the peak of the summer season in the United States, gasoline prices began to rise very quickly, but Trump demanded their reduction. As a result, he achieved his goal, but a little later - already in the fall, when the peak of the season was left behind, and the political situation changed somewhat. Moreover, the brutal murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi on October 2 at the Saudi Arabian embassy in Turkey helped him in this partly. 

became more accommodating and listened to the "advice" of the Americans - they need Trump's support. And he generally provided it, limiting himself to vague and not very harsh accusations against the crown prince, who is now accused of this murder, and at the same time of expanding cooperation with Russia. In a word, the US leader chose not to inflate this topic, reminding the Americans that Saudi Arabia should buy tens of billions of dollars worth of weapons from the US. He also said that he was going to maintain good relations with Riyadh and remain a "permanent partner" of the kingdom. And this week he even praised Saudi Arabia for making its tangible contribution to the process of lowering oil prices. In short, Trump on Twitter ordered everyone to "enjoy" and wait for oil prices to go even lower.

"What a big tax cut for America and the world. Enjoy! $54 was $82," Trump said. “Thanks to Saudi Arabia, but let's go lower.”

On top of that, US shale oil producers also reached their production highs in the autumn, which also turned out to be a fly in the ointment of those who advocated an increase in oil prices. Political appeals in this case did not play any role: the main thing is profit.It was against this background that American oil production grew at such a pace that even the International Energy Agency (IEA), which predicted the rise of American oil production, did not foresee. 

in the world producers of "black gold" - Russia and Saudi Arabia - in terms of oil production were behind the US In early November, the Amer. Ikan's decision to somewhat mitigate the sanctions blow to Iran. More precisely, the United States took into account, of course, not the sanctions costs of Tehran, since it was already promised "the most severe" restrictive measures in history, but the fact that excessive exaggeration in relation to some countries - importers of Iranian oil - could return like a boomerang to the United States itself. Therefore, for eight countries, including India and China, exceptions were made. For some time the Americans allowed them to buy oil from the Iranians - without consequences. However, then they promise to impose sanctions against the disobedient.  

In Saudi Arabia, all these American decisions were  not well received, since Iran is a historical enemy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), and the concessions were perceived by the Arabians as a kind of US weakness. Of course, Saudi Arabia was clearly not satisfied that Tehran received a small respite, and yet, until recently, Riyadh stated that it was almost single-handedly ready to completely replace Iran's “falling out” volumes on the world oil market. So far it has not grown together: although Iranian oil exports have decreased, but not so much that one can talk about its zeroing. And even it is still noticeably higher than 1 million barrels per day, which the United States bravely declared when it methodically stated the fact of a decrease in Iranian oil exports.

As a result, the Saudis nevertheless announced that there would still be to produce more than planned, but in December production will be less. If we take into account the statements of some Saudi top officials, now they want to convince cartel partners at the OPEC summit (Russia has recently received invitations, as it is the largest participant in the OPEC + deal) to start reducing oil production in early December, as prices are already too high. dropped down a lot. If they succeed, then oil prices could go up again and recover to recent highs. With one "but": unless, of course, American shale oil producers again confuse all the cards.

Yes, and Russia has not yet shown keen interest in starting to reduce production volumes. According to Alexander Novak, head of the Russian Ministry of Energy, Russia is still monitoring the situation, studying the possible risks and expediency of reducing the production of "black gold".

The current oil price of less than $70 per barrel Saudi Arabia is not very and satisfied, since the country's budget was in the so-called "red zone": there is clearly not enough money to wage a war in Yemen, as well as to implement the country's authorities' grand plan for reforms, which were announced and widely publicized by the associates of Crown Prince Mohammed ibn Salman. The Saudis are even less satisfied with a price below $60 per barrel.

It follows from all of the above that in the short term, uncertainty in the global oil market will persist, which does not contribute to an increase in investment in oil production. And this, in turn, as the IEA recently warned, will lead to a shortage of oil in the long term - approximately by 2025. Unless, of course, the US shale producers once again tighten up and again refute the forecasts of respected experts and organizations, compensating with their hard work inevitable depletion of currently operating fields located on the territories of other states.
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