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EDB gave a forecast for Kazakhstan

14.10.2020 115 просмотров

The EDB expects a recovery in economic activity in Kazakhstan in 2021–2022. 

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) in 2021-2022 predicts the GDP growth of the Republic of Kazakhstan by an average of 4.7% per year, after a decrease in this indicator this year by 2.5%. This is stated in the macroeconomic review prepared by the Directorate for Analytical Work of the EDB.

The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have led to an unprecedented reduction in global business activity and international trade volumes. The economy of Kazakhstan in the current conditions contracted in January-June 2020 by 1.8% y/y. The effect of internal sanitary restrictions, a decrease in external demand, a drop in oil prices, as well as a slowdown in the rate of its production under the OPEC + agreements have become key factors influencing economic dynamics. compared to spring) in the second half of this year and the continuation of stimulating monetary and fiscal policies will form the conditions for the start of a recovery in economic activity.

It is expected that the anti-crisis support of the state in 2021 will continue, which will mitigate the negative impact of the pandemic on the economy. As a result, according to EDB analysts, in 2021-2022, GDP growth is projected at an average of 4.7% per year, after a decline in 2020 by 2.5%. At the same time, due to heightened uncertainty, social distancing, subdued external demand and weakened investment activity, this process will be lengthy: a return to pre-crisis levels of production is expected during 2021-2022, and the output gap will remain negative over the entire forecast horizon.

The review notes that in May-June, the Kazakh tenge partially regained its lost positions and strengthened to the level of 397 tenge per US dollar, which was facilitated by the beginning of the recovery of economic activity within the country and abroad, as well as the growth of oil quotations. In the second half of August - early September 2020, volatility increased in regional financial markets due to the increase in geopolitical risks, the persistence of which will not allow the full potential of the strengthening of the national currency to be realized. The EDB expects a correction of the exchange rate to the equilibrium level during 2021 in the context of a slowdown in the spread of coronavirus and the normalization of the geopolitical situation.

certain goods and the rise in prices for fruits and vegetables. By the end of 2020, the EDB forecasts inflation at 7.1% y/y, and prices will continue to be pressured by the transfer of the weakening of the national currency.

According to EADB Senior Analyst Aigul Berdigulova , risks remain elevated and shifted to the downside due to the instability of the emerging recovery in economic activity amid the continuing threat of a large-scale second wave of the pandemic, the aggravation of US-China relations and the strengthening of sanctions rhetoric against Russia, the negative impact of which can be transmitted to the economy of Kazakhstan through trade and financial channels.

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